US Consumer Confidence Falls to 12-Year Low in September

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in September, dropping 6.7 points to 81.9 from 88.6 in August, its lowest level since April 2014, as Americans expressed growing worry about prices, jobs and the broader economic outlook, according to the Conference Board and multiple outlets reporting the data on September 29.¹³⁴⁷

A broad decline

According to the Conference Board, the gauge tracking how Americans view present-day conditions dropped 7.9 points to a level of 109.3, and the six-month outlook gauge slid 5.9 points to 63.6 — its third straight monthly slide.¹³²

For the first time since September 2024, consumer appraisals of current business conditions turned negative. Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said: "Consumer appraisals of current business conditions became negative for the first time since September 2024."¹³⁷

The Conference Board said net assessments of business conditions today slipped by 3.4 percentage points, landing at -1.9 percent, while open-ended comments about prices and fuel costs climbed to record levels in September.³¹²

Prices and jobs weigh on sentiment

Peterson said references to costs had become especially pronounced, noting: "References to prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gas prices in particular, rose to new heights."¹³

CNBC reported that, for the first time since this particular survey question began four years ago, a majority described their personal finances as poor rather than favorable, while the gap between positive and negative labor-market views narrowed by 2.5 percentage points to 1.7 percent. CNBC also reported that the average 12-month inflation expectation rose to 6.1 percent, up 0.3 percentage points from August, while the Conference Board said median inflation expectations reached 5.1 percent.¹³

The Conference Board found that the proportion of consumers anticipating rate increases within the coming year climbed 5.2 percentage points, reaching 68.4 percent. Peterson said perceptions of the labor market, while weaker, had not turned negative: "Perceptions of the current labor market also worsened, though remained within positive territory."³²

Peterson added that households still expect conditions to soften further: "Over the next six months, consumers expected both business conditions and the labor market to weaken," while noting income expectations remained positive but diminished: "Consumers still anticipated their household incomes to rise, but less so compared to previous months."²¹⁰⁷

According to CNBC, job openings in August stood at 7.08 million, down 256,000 from July and below a Wall Street consensus forecast of 7.2 million. CNBC also reported that the confidence reading was well below the Dow Jones consensus forecast of 89, while Reuters-polled economists had forecast a figure of 89.2, according to U.S. News & World Report.¹¹⁰

University of Michigan survey points the same way

A different measure — the consumer sentiment survey conducted by the University of Michigan — likewise showed confidence sinking to its weakest point in four months. Azerbaijannews.net and stlouisstar.com reported that the gauge dropped to 48.1 from 51.7, coming in a touch higher than the initial estimate of 47.8 and topping the 47.6 figure that Reuters-surveyed economists had projected. NBC News reported the revised figure as 48.1, a claim it did not attribute to other sources.⁸⁹¹¹

Per azerbaijannews.net and stlouisstar.com, confidence has slid 15 percent since January, and views of current household finances have softened by roughly a tenth. Inflation expectations for the year ahead climbed to 4.6 percent from 4.0 percent, while five-year inflation expectations reached 3.4 percent, up from 3.4 percent in February.⁸⁹

Joanne Hsu, who heads the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers, pointed to widespread price concerns, stating: "Views of current and year-ahead expected personal finances both weakened about 10% this month, with concerns over high prices continuing to climb." She added: "The short-run outlook for business conditions plunged amid renewed worries that elevated fuel prices and re-escalating trade disputes could pass through to the economy."⁷

Hsu noted that pessimism cut across party lines, though unevenly: "Overall, interviews reveal broad agreement across the political spectrum that the outlook for the economy has weakened since the beginning of the year." She added: "After particularly large declines in sentiment this month, Republican sentiment is now 20 percent lower than January 2026." Democratic sentiment was reported as 13 percent lower than at the start of the year.⁸⁹

Context and caveats

South China Morning Post reported that the reading was the lowest in more than a decade, below the level recorded during the pandemic, and linked it to elevated prices, stagnant wages and the ongoing Iran war as a source of economic uncertainty. Axios, however, reported that hiring ticked up even as job openings ticked down in August, and cited views that the labor market remains fundamentally solid despite the weak sentiment reading.⁴⁶

The Conference Board noted that Americans' overall assessment of their household finances flipped negative in September, intentions to buy cars and houses edged down slightly, yet vacation intentions stayed steady, with 42.6 percent saying they planned to travel within six months. Peterson said comments about conflict had eased somewhat but remained elevated: "Comments about war/conflict eased this month but remained elevated," and that consumers also cited politics, trade and employment, "though to a lesser extent."³