Dodik Claims Sweeping SNSD Victory in Bosnia Election

Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik declared his Alliance of Independent Social Democrats victorious after Bosnia and Herzegovina voted on October 4 for its state presidency and regional and cantonal authorities, with preliminary results showing the party maintaining its dominance in Republika Srpska.¹²³

SNSD leads in Republika Srpska

Dodik, who was not a candidate, said after the polls closed: “I declare victory at all levels. Thank you to everyone.” His party, commonly known as SNSD, led the race for the Republika Srpska National Assembly with 38.93 per cent when almost 87 per cent of ballots there had been counted, according to Balkan Insight.²³

Preliminary results indicated that SNSD candidate Zeljka Cvijanovic would retain the Serb position in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s three-member presidency. Savo Minic, the Republika Srpska prime minister and another SNSD figure, was expected to become president of the Serb-majority entity.¹²³

Dodik served as president of Republika Srpska from 2022 until 2025. The Kyiv Independent reported that a conviction for defying the international envoy led to his removal and a six-year ban on seeking office. Despite his absence from the ballot, Balkan Insight reported that he remained influential in the campaign and within SNSD.²³

A reshaped state presidency

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s presidency consists of one representative from each of the Bosniak, Croat and Serb communities. Preliminary projections put Denis Becirovic in the Bosniak seat, Darijana Filipovic in the Croat seat and Cvijanovic in the Serb seat. The Central Election Commission said the figures remained provisional while ballot processing continued, according to Balkan Insight.¹³

Becirovic, the Social Democratic Party candidate backed by the United for Bosnia and Herzegovina coalition, was set to secure a second term. SDA leader Bakir Izetbegovic finished behind him, while Darijana Filipovic of HDZ BiH claimed victory in the contest for the Croat position.¹²³

Deutsche Welle reported that three nationalist parties prevailed within their respective communities: SNSD among Serbs, the Party of Democratic Action among Bosniaks and HDZ BiH among Croats. According to Balkan Insight, the SDA had 30.58 per cent in the Federation House of Representatives race after returns had been received from 93.48 per cent of polling stations.¹³

Low turnout despite new safeguards

Nationwide participation was about 42 per cent, Balkan Insight reported, 9.5 percentage points below the 2022 election. Deutsche Welle described turnout as just over 40 per cent and the lowest recorded since the Bosnian War ended in 1995.¹³

Every polling station used biometric fingerprint checks as part of new measures intended to prevent electoral manipulation. Deutsche Welle said previous elections had generated allegations that votes were submitted for deceased or absent people, that individuals voted more than once and that unused ballots were completed after polling ended.¹

Balkan Insight reported that voting passed without major disruption, although there were smaller problems involving the new technology. More than 80 per cent of polling stations submitted their results within 15 minutes of closing, the outlet said.³

Dodik credits changed US environment

Dodik linked his party’s showing partly to political developments in the United States, saying Donald Trump’s victory had prevented his allies from becoming politically marginalised. The United States imposed sanctions on Dodik in 2022 and lifted them late last year, according to Deutsche Welle; Balkan Insight said sanctions affecting Dodik and SNSD allies were dropped by the Trump administration.¹³

The Kyiv Independent reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin had expressed support for SNSD before the election and that Dodik thanked him. Deutsche Welle also reported that Dodik announced a return to what he calls the original Dayton arrangement, including transferring the army, border police and intelligence service to Republika Srpska.¹²