Quebec separatists favoured to win despite weak support for independence

Quebec voters went to the polls on Oct 5 in a provincial election that the separatist Parti Québécois, led by Paul Saint-Pierre Plamondon, was favoured to win. A victory would return the party to power after more than a decade and revive debate over its promise to hold another referendum on leaving Canada, although reported surveys indicate that independence remains a minority position.¹²³

A lead built on a divided vote

The Parti Québécois was polling at about 30%, according to reports in The Guardian and The Straits Times. The Straits Times said that level could still deliver a majority in Quebec’s 127-member National Assembly because support for federalist parties was expected to be divided. Poll analyst Philippe Fournier similarly told The Guardian that the party was gaining from voters opposed to it being split over which alternative to support.¹²

The Straits Times attributed the party’s expected advance principally to concerns about affordability and deteriorating public services rather than increased enthusiasm for separation. The Guardian reported a different emphasis among analysts, who linked Plamondon’s rise to identity politics. His platform includes reducing immigration and prohibiting conspicuous religious symbols for teachers and students.¹²

Plamondon has also blamed immigration for pressure on schools and housing and for higher crime, according to The Guardian. The newspaper reported that he described a possible federal increase in immigration as an “abuse of power” that would damage French-language services. Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose Liberal government was described by The Straits Times as broadly supported, has said Ottawa would probably raise immigration levels.¹²

A referendum pledge with conditions

The Parti Québécois has committed itself to another independence referendum if elected. Reports differ on the timetable: The Guardian said the party promised a vote within two years, while The Straits Times reported that Plamondon had ruled one out before at least 2029 and would not proceed while Donald Trump remained US president. Plamondon said a referendum “requires conditions that allow for an informed and calm debate”.¹²³

The history of such votes remains central to the campaign. The Straits Times reported that federalists won Quebec’s 1980 referendum comfortably. In 1995, the margin was much narrower, with 50.58% voting for Quebec to remain in Canada. The New York Times described Quebec as having rejected independence three decades ago.²³

Current backing for separation remains well below half. The Guardian said a majority of Quebec voters oppose independence and that an overwhelming majority do not want a referendum soon. According to The Straits Times, recent polling put backing for Quebec independence at around 30%, meaning a victory for the party would not automatically signal popular support for its central constitutional aim.¹²

Relations with Ottawa and the monarchy

The election is also a test for Carney’s approach to national unity. According to The Guardian, Quebec voters generally backed Carney rather than the separatist Bloc Québécois in the federal election last year. Plamondon has said his dealings with Ottawa would be based on a “balance of power” and that cooperation would depend on respect for Quebec. Carney said his government would work “with the next Quebec premier in a spirit of cooperative federalism”.¹²

Plamondon has separately promised legislation ending Quebec’s ties to the monarchy. The Straits Times reported that he proposed abolishing the activities of the lieutenant-governor, the monarchy’s provincial representative, and redirecting that office’s budget towards tackling homelessness. The newspaper cited a 2025 Leger poll in which 87% of Quebecers said they had no connection to the British monarchy, while 31% had a favourable view of King Charles.¹²

Voting was scheduled to run from 9.30am local time until 8pm, according to The Straits Times. The final result will determine whether the Parti Québécois can convert support of about 30% into control of the provincial government and whether it secures a majority in the National Assembly.¹²