Tesla quarterly deliveries beat forecasts despite annual decline

Tesla said on Oct. 2 that it delivered 486,532 vehicles to customers in the third quarter, surpassing analyst expectations while remaining below the year-earlier level. The result came as the electric-vehicle maker faced weaker sales in the United States but reported improving demand in Europe and continued strength from its China factory.¹²³

Deliveries exceed forecasts

CNBC reported that Tesla’s deliveries declined by about 2% from 497,099 in the same quarter a year earlier, but increased from 480,126 in the second quarter. TechCrunch described the prior-year period as Tesla’s strongest quarter and put that quarter’s deliveries at about 497,000.¹³

The latest total exceeded both external and company-tracked forecasts. StreetAccount’s consensus was about 461,100 deliveries, according to CNBC, while Tesla’s company-compiled analyst consensus was 461,974. The Verge also reported the company-compiled estimate.²³

Tesla produced 464,391 vehicles between July and September, according to The Verge and CNBC, meaning deliveries were higher than production during the quarter. CNBC said the Model 3 sedan and Model Y sport utility vehicle together represented 98% of deliveries.¹²³

Pressure in the United States

The quarterly performance followed weaker results in Tesla’s home market. TechCrunch reported that the company’s US sales were down nearly 20% year on year before the quarterly figures were released. The outlet also said some potential customers had been deterred by Elon Musk’s support for Donald Trump and his government role.¹

The Verge said the expiration of the $7,500 federal electric-vehicle tax credit had been widely expected to weigh on sales. The incentive, introduced through the Inflation Reduction Act in 2022, expired on Sept. 30, 2025, after Trump’s spending legislation ended it earlier than previously scheduled, according to CNBC.²³

Musk had warned that Tesla faced “a few rough quarters” because of the expiring incentive and broader economic conditions, The Verge reported. He also linked a future recovery to Tesla’s artificial-intelligence plans, including robotaxis and humanoid robots.²

Europe, new vehicles and energy storage

TechCrunch reported that Tesla’s sales were rising again in Europe, where electric vehicles have wider adoption and emissions rules are tighter. The outlet said Tesla was reportedly increasing capacity at its German factory to meet demand, while its China factory continued to record strong sales despite regional competition.¹

Tesla began putting Cybercabs on roads in Austin in July and offering autonomous passenger rides without a driver, steering wheel or pedals, according to TechCrunch. The Verge reported that Tesla also faced a federal investigation connected to the launch and that the next-generation Roadster presentation had been delayed.¹²

CNBC reported that Tesla deployed 13.7 gigawatt-hours of energy storage products during the quarter, exceeding its previous-quarter and year-earlier deployments. Separately, TechCrunch said Tesla had announced access to as much as $30 billion in new credit lines to support its projects.¹³