Ukraine plans more Russian refinery strikes as Moscow expands attacks

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Oct 4 that Ukraine would increase attacks on oil refineries in Russia, while avoiding civilian sites, in response to Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces would intensify attacks on military, defence-industry and related infrastructure in Kyiv and other Ukrainian regions.¹²³⁴

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Competing accounts of retaliation

Zelenskyy presented refineries as the initial focus of Ukraine’s response because of the revenue they provide Russia during the war. He said Kyiv’s operations would not be directed at civilian objects, although the dossier does not contain independent confirmation of that commitment. The president described the planned attacks as a response to Moscow’s strikes on Ukraine’s energy system.¹²³

Russia’s Defence Ministry gave a different account of the escalation. It said recent Russian strikes on Kyiv and other regions were retaliation for Ukrainian attacks on civilian targets inside Russia. The ministry said Russian forces would now increase strikes on Ukrainian military facilities, defence-industry sites and the infrastructure supporting them.²³⁴

Zelenskyy alleges a broader Russian doctrine

Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained documents showing that Vladimir Putin had authorised a winter doctrine permitting attacks against a wider range of civilian targets. According to Zelenskyy, the listed targets included infrastructure, logistics networks, roads, schools and hospitals in cities and villages. He said the campaign was intended to pressure residents to leave Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities; the dossier provides no independent verification of the documents.¹

Russia has recently intensified attacks on infrastructure in Kyiv, including bridges over the Dnipro river, according to The Moscow Times. The outlet reported that the campaign had seriously disrupted daily life for the capital’s three million residents. The Russian account cited in the dossier describes the intended targets as military and defence-industrial facilities and associated infrastructure.²⁴

Damage and casualties

Kyiv’s city administration said a direct hit on Oct 3 damaged the road surface and trolleybus network of the Northern Bridge, prompting traffic restrictions. It reported that two people were injured, with one briefly admitted to hospital before continuing treatment as an outpatient. The Guardian separately said Russian strikes nationwide left no fewer than six people dead and also caused damage to the bridge.¹⁵

According to CBC, recent Russian drone attacks struck the headquarters building of Ukraine’s National Academy of Sciences. In Russia’s Krasnodar region, falling drone debris struck an industrial site in Temryuk district and started a fire, according to the same outlet. Three people were injured and received treatment while emergency services worked at the site; the dossier does not identify the origin of that drone.³

Ukraine adjusts its defences

Ukraine is also seeking to strengthen its ability to counter Russian air attacks. F-16 and MiG aircraft bring down about 60 per cent of Russia’s jet-powered drones, but Ukraine is working to compensate for limited fighter-aircraft ammunition and improve jamming. It is due to receive an initial shipment of inexpensive short-range air-defence missiles in October that can engage new jet-powered Shahed drones.¹

The Guardian also reported that Ukraine had begun deploying its domestically produced FP-7 ballistic missile, which has a range of about 250km. On the ground, the outlet said the Vivaldi counteroffensive had retaken about 140 square kilometres in the eastern Donbas region. No additional assessment or independent confirmation of that territorial figure is provided in the dossier.¹