Australian Coalition sets lower migration targets

Australia’s Liberal-National Coalition unveiled a migration policy on 6 October that would set net overseas migration at 100,000 a year for its first two years, alongside cuts to temporary and humanitarian visa categories and limits on international student enrolments. The opposition’s proposal was presented by Angus Taylor as political parties debate immigration policy ahead of the next general election, which is not due until 2028.²³

Targets and visa changes

Under the Coalition proposal, net overseas migration would be held at 100,000 in each of the first two years. Under the Coalition's policy outline, net overseas migration would rise to 130,000 in year three before reaching 160,000 in 2031-32. Taylor said: "The net overseas migration numbers will be 100,000 year one, 100,000 year two, going to 160,000 in year four."¹³

Over a four-year period, the proposal would cut 650,000 temporary visas, end the temporary graduate visa programme and place a 240,000 limit on international student enrolments. It would also halve humanitarian visa places to 10,000, according to reports on the announcement.²³

The Coalition also said it would create an additional 100,000 temporary skilled visas and process outstanding visa applications from construction workers. The proposal would therefore combine lower overall migration targets with a greater emphasis on selected skilled-worker routes.²³

Comparison with government policy

Labor has set net overseas migration goals of 245,000 for this financial year and 225,000 for 2027-28. For the 12 months ending 30 June 2025, net overseas migration totalled 306,000. Later Australian Bureau of Statistics data put the figure at 292,000 for the year ending in March, compared with 299,000 in December.¹²³

In September, Labor announced visa and rule changes intended to lower immigration levels and allow ministers to prioritise applicants with skills in demand. Former senior immigration official Abul Rizvi said Labor would probably meet its 225,000 target if it maintained a high visa-refusal rate and delivered the changes already announced.¹

Political pressure and feasibility questions

One Nation has also put forward a more restrictive temporary-migration policy, pledging to reduce temporary visa holders by 750,000 over three years if elected. Its policy would limit student visas to 115,000 each year, bring the total number of student visa holders down to 350,000, restrict graduate visas to 20,000 annually and ultimately cap net overseas migration at 130,000 a year.¹

The Greens have rejected setting a numerical net overseas migration target. Greens leader David Shoebridge said: "We are not going to start picking figures out of the air that fall apart at the slightest scrutiny." Rizvi said the Coalition’s proposed 100,000 level appeared close to impossible under current settings, estimating that its measures might reduce net overseas migration to about 200,000 instead.¹

Rizvi also questioned whether proposed reductions in bridging and protection visas could be delivered. The Coalition’s policy would reduce those visas from more than 400,000 to 20,000 over four years, while University of Sydney immigration expert Anna Boucher said removing bridging visas could lower recorded migration while increasing the number of undocumented migrants.¹