Lula Bans Online Betting Days Before Brazil Vote

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil issued a provisional decree outlawing fixed-odds sports wagering and online casinos, coming just over a week before the October 4 presidential election, where his opponent is Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro.²⁵¹

The betting ban

The decree, effective at once, halts all running, provision, brokering and promotion of fixed-odds wagering across Brazil. It bars new deposits into betting accounts and gives users until October 5 to withdraw existing funds. Brazilian law dictates that the measure must be ratified by Congress inside a 120-day window if it is to stay in force.²³

Separately, Lula's administration prepared legislation that would make certain fixed-odds betting activities criminal offences. The president told journalists in São Paulo that he had taken "a hard, drastic and necessary measure," adding, "It's like cancer, you take out the tumour, or the tumour will kill us."²³

Speaking at the United Nations General Assembly, Lula accused the betting industry of "transforming addiction into profit" and of "destroying homes." He said, "We won't allow betting companies to profit at the expense of Brazilian families' income and lives."²³

According to the Guardian and the BBC, the move was designed to tackle the problem of families falling into debt. Lula had already called for a ban on online betting in April, and beneficiaries of the Bolsa Familia welfare programme were previously blocked from betting platforms.²⁵

Political reaction

Flávio Bolsonaro accused Lula of an "electoral measure" and, at a campaign rally in Rio de Janeiro, described the crackdown as "populist, hypocritical and politically motivated."²³

Football clubs, which have relied on betting companies as sponsors, raised concerns after firms reportedly warned that sponsorships would end if betting was banned. Grêmio said betting revenue was "one of the main sources of revenue for sports" and warned a ban "will not only be an open door for illegal betting, but a fatal blow to Brazilian football, leading many clubs to insolvency." The Brazilian Institute for Responsible Gaming said "the ban also doesn't eliminate existing demand" and would remove "access to protection mechanisms provided in the regulated environment."³

Background on gambling regulation

According to the Guardian, Brazil first allowed online betting to take root in 2018 while Michel Temer was president, and the sector grew even more during Jair Bolsonaro's term in office. In December 2023, Lula signed a law regulating and taxing betting companies for the first time. Since then, his government has shut down access to over 2,000 online betting sites deemed to be operating unlawfully. In October, Congress rejected a prior decree from Lula that would have raised taxes on internet betting and virtual casino operations. A survey by Atlas and Bloomberg, cited by the BBC, found support among Brazilian adults for banning internet betting.²³

A tight race

According to Deutsche Welle, polls currently show Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck in a potential runoff, with the election on October 4 to decide the country's next president. Deutsche Welle described Flávio Bolsonaro as his father's eldest son and Lula's biggest challenger.¹

Deutsche Welle reported that, in opening remarks to the UN General Assembly in New York, Lula declared that Brazil is not anyone's backyard, a comment the outlet interpreted as aimed at Donald Trump even though he was not present in the room. The same outlet reported that Trump has repeatedly meddled in Brazil's internal politics in favour of Jair Bolsonaro and the far-right opposition, and that in July he penalised a judge who had convicted Bolsonaro of plotting a coup and handed down a 27-year sentence, according to Deutsche Welle; those penalties were later withdrawn by Washington following talks with Lula.¹

Deutsche Welle described Brazil as the world's fifth largest country and an agricultural giant rich in natural resources including rare earths, water and crude oil reserves. The outlet described Lula as the sole remaining figure of the South American left still in power, contrasted with Flávio Bolsonaro's growing far-right movement, and said the election outcome will determine whether Brazil drifts nearer to Trump's America.¹

Deutsche Welle noted that Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Chile, Ecuador and Colombia currently have governments sympathetic to Trump, and that Venezuela has been, in the view of some observers, a US protectorate since January. The outlet said foreign policy has not played a major role in the campaign, even as Washington pursues economic and military influence in South America through its Shield of the Americas initiative, framed around combating violent cartels, while also pressuring Mexico and Cuba and seeking to counter Chinese influence in the region.¹

Deutsche Welle said Lula favours a multilateral approach to diplomacy and wants Brazil engaging commercially with all nations, pointing out that China has for a long time been Brazil's top trading partner. Flávio Bolsonaro, by contrast, favours a conservative alliance with the United States and other right-wing states, though the outlet said a Bolsonaro victory would not automatically guarantee closer US ties, since Lula himself established a largely normal relationship with Trump despite early friction.¹

Deutsche Welle noted that during Jair Bolsonaro's 2019-2023 term, Brazil consented to give up its developing-nation status within WTO talks, and Washington pledged support for Brazil's bid to join the OECD, with Trump indicating he might extend NATO-style privileges to Brazil; both promises ultimately went unfulfilled. According to the outlet, the foreign-policy consequences of a Flávio Bolsonaro presidency remain entirely uncertain, given Lula's established diplomatic standing versus Bolsonaro's lack of experience, and a Bolsonaro victory would probably put at risk Brazil's position within BRICS, the ten-member grouping that includes Russia, India, China and South Africa alongside Brazil. Flávio Bolsonaro has said he would review Brazil's BRICS membership, arguing the bloc only provokes the US, and has spoken against Chinese efforts to reduce the dollar's global dominance.¹