Official count gives United List 41 seats in Latvia election

Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’s United List won Latvia’s parliamentary election, taking 272,028 valid ballots, 35.348% of the vote and 41 of the Saeima’s 100 seats, according to the Central Election Commission. The result leaves the party short of a majority and facing coalition negotiations; Unitel/EFE reported that Latvia First placed second with 13.35% and 17 seats.⁹¹⁰

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Security at the centre of the campaign

The Central Election Commission recorded 272,028 valid ballots, 35.348% of the vote and 41 seats for the United List. It reported that 767,782 of 1,557,615 eligible voters participated, putting turnout at 49.29%.¹⁰

The election was Latvia’s second since Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Latvia borders Russia and Belarus, and roughly one-third of its 1.8 million residents speak Russian as their first language, according to The Kyiv Independent. Latvian intelligence warned in June that Moscow might be preparing hybrid operations or incursions targeting Poland and the Baltic countries, while Latvia has said it has detected no indication of an imminent conventional Russian attack.²

The campaign has also been shaped by military drones entering Latvian airspace. The Straits Times reported that the drones were Ukrainian and that Latvian officials blamed Russia for diverting them from their intended routes. Several stray drones have been brought down by NATO aircraft in Latvian airspace, according to The Kyiv Independent. Russia says claims that it intends to attack NATO are unfounded, while Western officials say it lacks the capability for a direct assault on the alliance.²³

Four German Eurofighter jets were deployed to protect Latvian airspace at Riga’s request as part of efforts to reinforce NATO’s Baltic air defences.¹

Kulbergs, who became prime minister in May after the previous coalition fell apart over its handling of drone incidents, campaigned for expanded anti-drone defences. Latvia now allocates nearly 5% of gross domestic product to defence and, according to Deutsche Welle, has committed by law to spending 5%. Kulbergs also promised continued assistance for Kyiv, saying: “We have to give Ukraine everything necessary right now (so) that they can have the upper hand and win”.¹³⁵

A fragmented contest

The United List’s 35.348% represented roughly three times its 11.14% result in 2022. Unitel/EFE reported that Latvia First finished second with 13.35% and 17 seats, followed by Sovereign Power/Young Latvians. It reported 9.12% and 11 seats for the National Alliance, 6.92% and nine seats for the Progressives, and 6.07% and seven seats for New Unity.⁹¹⁰

With 41 of the Saeima’s 100 seats, the United List needs coalition partners for a majority. Kulbergs ruled out governing with Latvia First and parties he regards as pro-Russian, while most parties rejected a coalition with Sovereign Power. Unitel/EFE reported that Kulbergs was expected to receive the president’s commission to form a government and that the Progressives were open to negotiations.¹⁵⁶⁹

Sovereign Power leader Julija Stepanenko has argued against completely ending economic links with Russia and Belarus. She said voters wanted peace and fewer air alerts, and maintained that Ukraine should prevail through negotiations rather than continued financing of the conflict. Kulbergs has called Sovereign Power “a threat to Latvia's security and democracy”, while The Kyiv Independent described it as the only significant political force opposing assistance to Ukraine.¹²³

Trade and economic pressures

The cost-of-living crisis has accompanied security policy as a major election issue. Latvia First, led by former businessman Ainars Slesers, has advocated economic growth, investment and a pragmatic approach to Russia. In September, Slesers argued that goods should continue to transit between Latvia and Russia where European Union sanctions do not prohibit the trade.¹²

According to Deutsche Welle, Latvia’s imports from Russia and Belarus have fallen by over 90% since 2022. The outlet also cited polling indicating that 60% of Latvians want less dependence on Russia, while 20% support closer relations. The Kyiv Independent reported that Latvia briefly held up requests to remove two Russian oligarchs from the EU sanctions list before imposing its own measures once they were delisted by the bloc.¹²

Russian-speaking voters reassess their choices

Meduza reported that some Russian-speaking voters who support Ukraine but also want to preserve the place of the Russian language do not see a clear political choice. Harmony, once the leading party for many Russian-speaking voters, condemned Russia’s invasion on February 24, 2022, a position that split the party and alienated some Kremlin supporters. It subsequently received 4.81% in the 2022 parliamentary election and failed to enter the Saeima.⁴

Other organisations have since sought support from Russian-speaking voters. For Stability!, Sovereign Power/Young Latvians and Latvia First secured seats in Riga’s 2025 city council elections. In September 2026, people close to former politician Tatjana Ždanoka joined the Sovereign Power/Young Latvians slate; Latvia’s State Security Service opened an investigation in 2024 into her possible cooperation with Russian intelligence after The Insider published allegations about her contacts.⁴

Despite disagreement over trade, sanctions and aid to Ukraine, Deutsche Welle and The Kyiv Independent assessed that Latvia’s overall foreign-policy direction was unlikely to change substantially. The immediate question is which parties can give the election-winning United List the additional seats it needs for a parliamentary majority.¹²¹⁰