Russian satellite approaches Ukraine-supporting spacecraft in low Earth orbit

Russia’s Cosmos-2612 satellite manoeuvred towards ICEYE-X36, a spacecraft supporting Ukraine’s military, in low Earth orbit between October 15 and 19, according to El País. The South China Morning Post reported on October 21 that the Russian satellite had come within 100 metres over the weekend, while other accounts described its subsequent retreat.¹²³⁴

Approach and withdrawal

The reports give different distances for the encounter. Axios reported on October 17 that Cosmos-2612 had approached to roughly three miles, citing tracking by LeoLabs. El País subsequently reported a separation of less than five kilometres. The 100-metre figure appeared in the South China Morning Post’s October 21 account.²³⁴

Withdrawal was also described in the coverage. The New York Times reported on October 20 that the spacecraft was backing away. El País said the Russian satellite had approached, moved around ICEYE-X36 and then withdrawn in a controlled sequence, eventually reaching a separation of more than 100 kilometres.¹³

The South China Morning Post reported that the Russian military spacecraft was placed in low Earth orbit in April. It began altering its course in late September and ultimately entered the same orbit as ICEYE-X36, the newspaper reported. Those changes preceded the October encounters described by the other outlets.²³⁴

A spacecraft supporting Ukraine

ICEYE-X36 supports Ukraine’s military. The South China Morning Post describes it as a spacecraft operated by Finland’s ICEYE under a United States contract. El País reported that it supplies Ukraine with detailed images of the areas where fighting is taking place.²³⁴

That connection extends beyond the reported encounter. According to El País, ICEYE announced in 2022 that it was transferring a satellite to the Ukrainian government and providing access to the remainder of its constellation. The newspaper also cited ICEYE chief Rafal Modrzewski as saying the company had adjusted ICEYE-X36’s orbit after the Russian manoeuvres.³

Questions about the manoeuvre

El País characterised the operation as a deliberate orbital rendezvous rather than an incidental crossing. It reported that LeoLabs had not previously observed such an intentional approach sustained for several days between spacecraft belonging to different owners. The newspaper described it as the first known low-Earth-orbit encounter between two active satellites without one operator’s consent.³

According to the same report, Orbital Radar’s data showed Cosmos-2612 adjusting its path until it nearly matched ICEYE-X36’s trajectory. El País also reported that the closest part of the encounter occurred while the spacecraft were travelling at an altitude of 540 kilometres.³

Axios reported concern among analysts about the purpose of the approach. The New York Times reported that analysts saw the manoeuvre as another example of aggressive conduct by Russia. El País raised the possibility that manoeuvres of this kind could threaten commercial satellite constellations even without a direct attack; that remains an assessment rather than an established outcome of this encounter.¹³⁴