Saudi Arabia weighs Yemen offensive after Houthi Red Sea gains

Saudi Arabia was considering a new offensive against Houthi forces in Yemen on Oct 2, 2026, after the group took control of Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea’s southern exit. The operation is expected to begin in the coming weeks, with Yemeni ground forces under Riyadh’s oversight and Saudi aircraft providing support.¹²⁴

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Options for a new campaign

Saudi planners were considering either a limited coastal operation around Bab el-Mandeb or coordinated attacks across Taiz, Al-Bayda, Marib and Al-Jawf. Plans could call up over 100,000 Yemeni personnel, with projected start dates spanning from as soon as a week to after the early-November US midterm vote. Axios reported separately that Saudi leaders had approved the counteroffensive.¹²⁴⁵

The Houthis captured Mocha, Dhubab and Mayyun Island during their September advance, according to Al Jazeera, giving them control of Yemen’s western coast and cutting the Saudi-backed government’s access to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia’s position is that it cannot begin new peace negotiations while the group controls Bab el-Mandeb.¹²³⁴

Former US envoy to Saudi Arabia Michael Ratney anticipates a campaign more limited in scope than the Riyadh-led intervention launched in 2015. “Ideally, it would be a fairly limited operation to retake coastal areas and get back to normal maritime traffic,” he said.¹⁴

Support without direct allied combat

The United States is supplying intelligence for Saudi operations but is not expected to join the fighting at this stage. Donald Trump rebuffed requests from Mohammed bin Salman for direct assistance such as US air strikes. Axios reported that Saudi Defence Minister Khalid bin Salman sought strikes in an Oct 1 call with US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth, and that Washington instead provided information on more than 200 Houthi targets.¹²⁴⁵

Axios also reported that Trump remained reluctant to intervene directly but had not excluded doing so, and that the United States could reconsider if the Saudi operation ran into difficulty. The outlet said senior US national-security officials held an unannounced Camp David meeting on Oct 2 covering Iran and the Saudi-Houthi conflict.⁵

Pakistan has stationed 30,000 to 40,000 personnel in Saudi Arabia to guard its borders and counter drones and missiles, while holding off on committing forces to fight in Yemen. Four Pakistani cargo aircraft delivered military equipment to Aden; The Straits Times reported that the cargo included air-defence systems, light artillery, drones and counter-drone systems. France has announced that it will send troops and defensive systems to help protect Yanbu.¹²⁴

Questions over ground-force readiness

Because Saudi Arabia's partners are unlikely to fight themselves, the campaign's outcome would rest on Yemeni troops. Analyst Mohammed Albasha said many anti-Houthi units were not organised or prepared for a prolonged offensive. Saudi analyst Ali Shihabi similarly said: “Success greatly depends on the quality of the performance of the local forces.”¹²

Al Jazeera reported that the Houthi west-coast campaign involved 76,000 Yemeni fighters and exploited divisions and communications failures among government-aligned forces. The outlet also reported that Iranian Revolutionary Guard advisers assisted Houthi commanders with communications and satellite-intelligence analysis. Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president, denied that Tehran was linked to Houthi actions and urged talks.³

The Houthis said Saudi forces carried out 94 strikes on areas under their control within 24 hours and put the number of Saudi strikes since renewed fighting began at 1,350. Separately, the Saudi-led coalition blamed the Houthis for a Sept 29 drone attack on the Taibah electricity-distribution station in Madinah. One transformer was disabled, but the grid continued operating.⁶⁷