Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro neck and neck as Brazil prepares to vote

Polling cited by France 24 and The Guardian puts Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro in a virtual tie ahead of the October 4 presidential vote. Lula is seeking a fourth term and says he is running to prevent the Bolsonaro family from returning to government, while Bolsonaro is campaigning to restore the political movement led by his imprisoned father.¹²³

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A close and divided contest

The election could continue for another three weeks. If nobody wins more than half of valid ballots, the two leading candidates will enter a runoff on October 25.²³⁴

Polling reports show a close contest. France 24 and The Guardian described Lula and Bolsonaro as neck and neck, although Datafolha projected Lula at about 45% and Bolsonaro at 40% in the first round. A small group of undecided voters could therefore prove decisive.¹³⁴

Both candidates used their closing events to appeal to people uncomfortable with political polarisation, MercoPress reported. The only planned debate featuring both men was cancelled after neither attended and courts issued rulings concerning the event. Ronaldo Caiado was polling at 4%, according to The Guardian.⁴

The Bolsonaro legacy

Flávio Bolsonaro, a 45-year-old senator, presents himself as a more moderate Bolsonaro, but NPR reported that he has identified few policy differences with his father. He supports wider access to firearms and closer alignment with the Trump administration. He has also pledged to pardon Jair Bolsonaro, join the 15-country Shield of the Americas and pursue an iron-fist approach to crime.²³

Jair Bolsonaro is imprisoned after his 2025 conviction for plotting to overturn his narrow 2022 election loss to Lula. NPR described the sentence as 27 years, while France 24 gave the term as 27 years and three months. Police said the scheme included a plan to kill Lula, according to NPR. France 24 also reported that slightly more than half of Brazilians believed the former president should serve his full sentence.¹²

The family’s role in the campaign became more visible in July, when an artificial-intelligence-generated video showing Jair Bolsonaro endorsing his son was screened at the official launch. France 24 said the Supreme Court sought an explanation, while the former president said he had not given permission for the video to use his likeness or voice. Specialists cited by the outlet described distinct roles for Flávio and his brothers Carlos and Eduardo in the family’s political operation.¹

France 24 reported that Flávio Bolsonaro had also been investigated over alleged corruption and money laundering connected to Dark Horse, a planned film starring Jim Caviezel as Jair Bolsonaro. The film’s release was postponed indefinitely. A separate case concerning the alleged diversion of civil servants’ salaries closed in 2025 without convictions.¹

Institutions and Washington

The result will influence the composition of Brazil’s highest court. Flávio Bolsonaro has announced plans to appoint five firmly conservative Supreme Court judges, according to The Guardian. According to The Guardian, Flávio Bolsonaro says he intends to name five justices with firmly conservative views.²³

Relations with Washington have also entered the campaign. Lula negotiated with US President Donald Trump to lower some tariffs while maintaining that Brazil’s judicial independence was not open to negotiation, NPR reported. The Guardian reported that Washington sought preferential access to Brazilian rare earths and other critical minerals in return for not imposing tariffs. Lula refused, whereas Bolsonaro proposed Brazilian resources as a means of lessening US reliance on China. The State Department separately called allegations of planned US interference involving Brazil’s voting machines “a baseless lie”.²³

Yuri Sanches of AtlasIntel warned that a narrow Lula victory could lead some Bolsonaro supporters to challenge the outcome and seek backing from officials in the United States. Flávio Bolsonaro’s pledge of closer ties with the Trump administration contrasts with Lula’s defence of judicial independence during tariff negotiations.²

Lula’s fourth-term campaign

Lula launched his 2026 campaign at a football stadium in São Paulo and led a pro-democracy march through central Rio de Janeiro in the closing days of the race. France 24 reported that he announced his candidacy in August despite saying before his 2022 victory that his third presidential tenure would be his last. Lula says he changed course because he believes only he can prevent the Bolsonaro family and the far right from returning to government.¹³

Lula returned to the presidency in 2022 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro.¹³