Vance strengthens off Mexico as hurricane forecast raises coastal surf concerns

Tropical Storm Vance strengthened off Mexico in the eastern Pacific on October 22, 2026, with sustained winds near 65 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. The center forecast hurricane strength that night and warned that swells could produce dangerous conditions along southern and southwestern Mexico.³

Strengthening offshore

In its October 22 bulletin, the hurricane center placed Vance about 490 miles south-southwest of Acapulco and about 650 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo. It was travelling west-northwest at roughly 5 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds reached as far as 90 miles from its center, and its minimum central pressure was 994 millibars.³

Vance developed into a tropical storm on Wednesday afternoon, October 21, a few hours after becoming a tropical depression, according to the weather blog published by AOL. That report described winds reaching 40 mph, with stronger gusts, and identified Vance as the season’s 22nd named Pacific storm.²

An earlier October 22 report from WJLA placed the storm about 520 miles south of Acapulco, moving west at 7 mph, with sustained winds of 40 mph. It said the center was expected to stay over open water and did not pose an immediate threat to land.⁴

Forecast intensity remains uncertain

The hurricane center said satellite images showed increasing organization, with bands of thunderstorms particularly evident south of the center and a developing central cloud mass. Its advisory assessed the storm’s intensity at 55 knots and described conditions as supportive of substantial strengthening over the following couple of days.³

Low vertical wind shear, substantial ocean heat and abundant moisture at middle atmospheric levels supported that forecast, the center said. Its projected winds rose to 70 knots after 12 hours, 90 knots after 24 hours and 105 knots after 48 hours. Forecasters said Vance might reach major-hurricane intensity before the weekend ended.³

However, the center emphasized uncertainty about how strong Vance would become. It said waters cooled by recent tropical cyclones, together with greater vertical wind shear later, could restrain further strengthening. The forecast also called for a turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest over the next 72 hours.³

Coastal effects expected

The hurricane center’s October 22 bulletin listed no watches or warnings for coastal areas. Nevertheless, it expected swells to affect southern and southwestern Mexico over the weekend and persist into the following week, potentially producing surf and rip currents dangerous to life. According to WJLA, the center advised those on Mexico’s Pacific shoreline, including local stakeholders, to monitor future forecasts.³⁴