US Completes Two-Decade Military Withdrawal From Iraq

United States forces completed their withdrawal from Iraq by September 30, 2026, ending a military presence that began with the 2003 invasion of the country, as Iraqi officials, Iranian figures and security analysts warned the departure could hand greater influence to Iran and give Islamic State sleeper cells room to regroup.¹²³⁴

The pullout

Iraqi officials said the US military withdrawal from the country was complete, with forces leaving their last bases around September 28-29, 2026, and the departure formalised by September 30 under a 2024 agreement reached during the final year of Joe Biden's presidency and carried out under Donald Trump.⁸⁵⁴

The move brought the official end of Operation Inherent Resolve, the military campaign against Islamic State, and US troop numbers in Iraq had peaked at approximately 2,500 personnel before the drawdown, according to SyriacPress. The Atlantic Council also reported that September 30 was the date Ali al-Zaidi had set for militias to lay down arms, yet three factions—Kata'ib Hizbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kata'ib Sayyid al-Shuhada—declined to comply.¹⁸

An opening for Iran

Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi analyst focused on Shi'ite armed groups, argued that Tehran is positioned to gain strategically now that coalition forces have left, an assessment shared by multiple outlets that portrayed Iraq as still unprepared to independently manage its own security. Pro-Iranian militia groups are expected to seek greater sway over security and political decisions.²³⁹⁴

Commander Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, of the Iran-backed umbrella group Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the withdrawal as a "historic victory for Iraqi resistance groups," while separately saying "Iraq has proven that its sovereignty cannot be secured by foreign forces, but by the resistance and the will of its people." In Iran, Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the parliament's National Security Commission, said "lasting security would prevail in Iraq once American forces left the country." Al-Bahadli predicted that Iran-aligned militias would frame the pullout as a win for their cause.⁵⁴

Iran-backed militia groups had already fired on US bases in the run-up to the withdrawal and attacked a major Saudi oil pipeline this month, according to StratNews Global, while the same groups are reported to have carried out attacks on neighbouring countries at Tehran's direction.⁴²³

Fears of an Islamic State comeback

Islamic State at its height occupied a third of Iraq, and officials cited by several outlets warned that the loss of US intelligence, logistics and drone capability could let the group regroup. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani said, "For more than two weeks, we have noticed movement by Islamic State sleeper cells, after it was announced that there will be an official withdrawal," attributing the increased activity directly to the withdrawal announcement.²³⁵⁴

Kirkuk's senior security official Khalid al-Bayati said "Islamic State is seeking to send a message that the group is still powerful and capable of launching bloody attacks." Separately, Iraqi security forces reported discovering a cell allegedly plotting suicide bombings timed to the withdrawal, and SyriacPress noted that ISIS elements continue operating even after American troops left, citing also a mortar strike near a monitored location that injured a civilian woman.²⁹⁸

The human cost

American military deaths during the Iraq campaign, known as Operation Iraqi Freedom, were roughly double the toll from the Afghanistan war, and seven of the 18 US troops killed this year in the conflict with Iran died in Iraq. Straits Times and South China Morning Post reported that 4,500 Americans died over more than two decades of war in Iraq, a figure not corroborated by StratNews Global or Modern Diplomacy; Sky News separately cited the same 4,500 figure as a single-source report.²³⁷

Assessing the aftermath

Atlantic Council analyst Victoria J. Taylor said the withdrawal "closes a chapter of US military presence in Iraq that began with the 2003 invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein." Fellow analyst Alina L. Romanowski said a US departure "will be seen by many in Iraq and across the region as another example of the United States abandoning its partners," while Nate Swanson said the September 30 deadline, once significant for US-Iran policy, "now has little bearing on the relationship or the war itself."¹

Devorah Margolin said ISIS "may no longer threaten Iraq's survival, but continued US-Iraqi cooperation and vigilance are essential to preventing hard-won gains from eroding." Omar Al-Nidawi warned that sustained disengagement "risks allowing Iraq to drift further into Iran's orbit, opening the door to renewed instability." Yerevan Saeed added that Kurdish communities in Iraq and Syria are "discovering that survival now depends on painful compromises with the very central powers they spent decades trying to escape."¹