Aramco chief says rebuilding oil inventories could take two years

Speaking in London on Oct. 5, 2026, Saudi Aramco chief executive Amin Nasser said restoring worldwide oil stocks while serving ongoing demand may require up to two years, including after the Strait of Hormuz is back in operation and energy-market sentiment improves.¹³⁶

Stocks depleted as demand continues

Nasser said nations could require additional oil for no less than two years, increasing demand by a minimum of 2 million barrels per day. He also said global oil consumption was still increasing. TASS reported that inventories stood at about 10 billion barrels when the US-Iran conflict began and had since fallen below 6 billion barrels, although those figures were not independently confirmed by the other dossier sources.²⁵

In separate remarks, Nasser said 1 billion barrels had already been drawn from stocks and that roughly 6 billion barrels remaining in storage were not practically accessible. He argued that technical constraints limited the amount available to the market. CNBC separately reported his assessment that commercial inventories had provided most of the draw so far.¹⁶

The G7 approved drawing 100 million barrels of crude oil and diesel from its emergency stockpiles. According to TASS, the release was coordinated with the International Energy Agency, was to take place over four months and would initially give priority to substantial diesel withdrawals by G7 members and partners.¹²⁷

Hormuz remains central

Nasser said pressure on crude and refined products would intensify until the Strait of Hormuz had fully reopened and market confidence had recovered. Arab News reported that the waterway handled an average of 20 million barrels a day in 2024, equivalent to about one-fifth of global petroleum-liquids consumption that year.¹²³

Reports said the Middle East conflict had disrupted energy infrastructure, shipping and oil movements through the strait. CNBC and OPIS cited Nasser's assessment that the conflict had removed almost 3 billion barrels from total supply, though the dossier's other sources did not independently verify that figure.¹³⁴

Aramco operations and contingency plans

The Business Times reported that Persian Gulf producers had increased production and exports, bringing crude flows close to prewar levels. It also said Aramco’s upstream capacity remained intact, enabling the company to continue supplying customers in Europe and Asia, while shipments from Ras Tanura had increased.⁵

The same report said an attack temporarily stopped flows through Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline before they recovered to about 80% of capacity. Arab News said Aramco had used that pipeline and its storage network to maintain operations during the regional crisis. OPIS quoted Nasser as saying the company continued to meet customer requirements.³⁴⁵

Aramco was reported to be considering additional export routes, larger storage facilities and more storage outside Saudi Arabia. OPIS said feasibility and engineering work had begun on a fourth and fifth export route, while the Business Times reported that the company was studying whether to double or triple storage capacity.³⁴⁵

Fuel markets under pressure

Nasser said refined-fuel prices had risen more sharply than crude prices. CNBC reported that Brent crude futures were 0.7% higher at $102.92 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate futures were 0.4% lower at $90.76. These price movements were reported snapshots rather than evidence that inventories had begun to recover.¹²