Estonia reportedly shifts troops and builds base near Russian border

Estonia was reported on Oct. 5, 2026, to be moving troops and weapons closer to its border with Russia, expanding a base in Jõhvi and constructing another in the border city of Narva as part of an active-defense strategy.¹²³

Forces moving east

The headquarters of Estonia’s First Brigade has relocated from Tapa to an expanded and modernised base in Jõhvi, according to Meduza. The Kyiv Independent reported that the brigade itself, described as the country’s principal combat-ready land-force element, would move there. Jõhvi is about 50 kilometres from the Russian border, while Tapa is about 150 kilometres away.¹²

Meduza and TASS reported that Estonia is also constructing a military base in Narva with capacity for as many as 1,000 troops. Meduza said the plan provides for 200 personnel to be based there permanently, with space for a further 800 during a crisis at the border.²³

Tarmo Kundla, commander of the First Brigade, linked the relocation to a change in Estonia’s strategic approach, according to The Kyiv Independent. “We have to start from the border and win from the first battles,” he said. A military policy official at Estonia’s defence ministry said planning that had remained unchanged for a decade was being revised.¹

Weapons and spending

The Kyiv Independent said Estonia’s active-defence posture would permit immediate return attacks against targets farther inside Russia in the event of an invasion. It also reported that Russia planned to double the forces stationed across the Estonian border, and said Estonia was relying on NATO regional air power and the deterrence provided by the alliance’s Article 5.¹

According to Meduza, Estonia signed contracts in 2025 for nine US-made HIMARS systems and nine South Korean Chunmoo launchers, with missiles able to travel as far as 300 kilometres. The Kyiv Independent said the US and South Korean systems could reach St Petersburg, while TASS separately reported the purchase of nine HIMARS launchers from the United States.¹²³

Estonia increased defence expenditure by 42 per cent in 2026 to 2.4 billion euros, or about 5.4 per cent of gross domestic product, according to The Kyiv Independent. Meduza quoted the Estonian Defence Ministry as saying: “Our aim is clear: to keep the enemy and the destruction of war away from Estonian territory.”¹²

Assessments of the threat

Meduza reported that Estonian military officials considered a Russian seizure of Narva unlikely, but had not excluded provocations intended to test NATO’s collective-defence clause. It said European countries, particularly those bordering Russia, had repeatedly voiced concern that Moscow might use provocations to pressure NATO into ending support for Ukraine. Latvia’s intelligence services issued a similar assessment in the summer of 2026, according to the outlet.²

Meduza reported that military and intelligence officials believed Russia lacked the capacity to wage a major conflict against NATO over the coming two years. TASS similarly reported that Estonia’s leadership believed Moscow did not want such a war for at least two years. These assessments do not confirm that a provocation or wider attack is planned.²³

TASS reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin responded to statements by Estonia’s unnamed defence minister about readiness to fight Russia. The outlet quoted Putin describing statements by the Estonian government as “utter nonsense, complete absurdity”.³