Flávio Bolsonaro advances to runoff as Brazil’s far-right standard-bearer

Flávio Bolsonaro, a Brazilian senator and son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, advanced in October 2026 to a presidential runoff against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Brazil. Their contest, which emerged from a 12-candidate field, has made Bolsonaro the principal figure on the country’s far right and placed competing approaches to the United States and Brazilian sovereignty at the centre of the campaign.¹³⁴

A family succession

Flávio Bolsonaro entered elected politics in 2002, according to The Hindu, winning a seat in the Rio de Janeiro state legislature. According to the newspaper, he completed four terms in that legislature and took a Federal Senate seat in 2019. It also said political circles call him “01” because he is Jair Bolsonaro’s first-born son.²

His ascent comes while his father is unable to stand. The Hindu reported that Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence and is barred from office over a plot against Lula, while The Independent said the former president plotted to remain in power after losing the 2022 election. The Independent also reported that Jair Bolsonaro is jailed after a political career that included 28 years in Congress and victory in the 2018 presidential election.¹²

The Independent reported that Flávio Bolsonaro received 56 million votes in the first round. It also said his allies are projected to hold nearly a quarter of the seats in each chamber of Congress. If elected, the newspaper reported, Bolsonaro would have an opportunity to appoint four members of the 11-seat Supreme Court during his term.¹

Washington and strategic resources

Bolsonaro has presented closer relations with Washington as a central part of his candidacy. France 24 reported that he emphasised his White House connections and called for improved agreements with the United States, including arrangements involving Brazil’s rare minerals. The Hindu described his platform as pro-business, supportive of the United States and Israel, and dependent on evangelical churches.²³

According to The Hindu, Bolsonaro met Donald Trump at the White House in May and discussed tariffs and rare-earth minerals. He argued that Brazil could provide Washington with an alternative to reliance on China for critical minerals. The Independent reported that Bolsonaro wants to become Trump’s preferred South American ally and that Brazil could make substantial concessions involving oil or rare-earth resources.¹²

Lula has framed those positions as a question of national autonomy. France 24 reported that he warned Brazilian sovereignty was at stake amid pressure from Trump. Paulo Nogueira Batista, a development economist, separately warned that a Bolsonaro victory “could even lead to the destruction of our sovereignty”.²³

Pressure points in the campaign

The Hindu reported on October 3 that Lula had led Bolsonaro by five points before voting, while expectations pointed to a closer second round. The same outlet said Bolsonaro’s support had stopped growing after reports that he intended to remove Nossa Senhora Aparecida’s status as Brazil’s patron saint, prompting a backlash among Catholic voters. Bolsonaro responded by saying he was evangelical but respected every religion.²

Bolsonaro has also faced allegations involving imprisoned banker Daniel Vorcaro and militia figures in Rio de Janeiro, which he denied, according to The Hindu. The Independent separately reported that Bolsonaro faces several corruption charges. The dossier does not provide the details or procedural status of those cases.¹²

Lula, who returned to the presidency in 2023, is seeking what France 24 described as a fourth and final term. The Independent reported that the 80-year-old previously governed from 2003 to 2010 and that his Workers’ Party has held power for almost 18 of the past 24 years. Lula has attacked his rival’s experience, saying: “He is not qualified to be President.”¹²³