Hawaii Braces for Hurricane Nolo Flooding as Baja Faces Hurricane Polo

Hawaii's Big Island prepared through the weekend of September 27-28, 2026, for flooding, mudslides and dangerous surf from Hurricane Nolo, which sat roughly 365 miles to the south-southwest of Honolulu and was pulling away at 12mph despite gaining strength, while Mexico's Baja California peninsula readied separately for Hurricane Polo.¹⁴⁷

Nolo's track and rainfall

Forecasters expected Hurricane Nolo to keep intensifying and shift its path northwestward by Sunday night, with its core staying well to the south and southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, the Guardian reported. Even so, outer bands from the storm could bring life-threatening flooding and mudslides to the Big Island.¹

Rainfall estimates varied between outlets. According to CBC, some areas of the Big Island might get as much as 38 centimetres of rain, potentially reaching 64 centimetres, down from an earlier projection of up to 89 centimetres; the outlet also noted that a storm surge between 30 and 91 centimetres could generate large, hazardous waves and coastal flooding. That figure was disputed by the Guardian, which said parts of the Big Island could receive up to 20 inches of rain.²¹⁵

Fox Weather said the Big Island's north-east side had already recorded roughly 18 inches of rainfall, with another 5 to 8 inches on the way, bringing overall storm totals to somewhere between 10 and 20 inches. Highway 11 in Waiohinu was closed because of moderate flood conditions, though Fox Weather said there had been no reports of catastrophic flooding despite the heavy rainfall.⁷

Weather.com reported that Nolo had intensified into a Category 4 storm, with sustained winds increasing 55mph within 24 hours as it moved into warmer waters. "Nolo continues to move into warmer waters, which are helping it intensify," The Weather Company said, adding that the system could peak as a Category 5 hurricane before weakening and turning north-west, then west. A hurricane watch was issued for the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument, wind gusts of up to 50mph were possible across Big Island and Maui County, and larger swells were producing dangerous surf and rip currents: "Larger swells are producing dangerous surf and rip currents along the island chain."⁴

Weather.com characterized Nolo as the fourth flooding event to affect Hawaii this hurricane season and the most powerful hurricane effect felt by the Big Island in 67 years. Fox Weather likewise noted that Hawaii, which it said generally sees little tropical activity, was facing its fourth tropical threat of the season.⁴⁷

Emergency response

President Trump signed an emergency declaration for Hawaii, giving FEMA authority to organize aid efforts, OPB reported. Over 120 National Guard troops were mobilized on the Big Island, out of about 400 called up statewide, according to OPB and the Guardian.⁶¹

Echoes of Hurricane Lala

These preparations came after Hurricane Lala, which dislodged roughly 100 homes from their foundations on the Big Island in August, according to the Guardian, adn.com and OPB. CBC reported that the heaviest rain from Nolo was likely to fall over the same south-eastern region of the island that Lala had struck. In Hilo, resident Andrea Gill, who was swimming at a closed beach park while preparing for the storm, said: "We're used to lots of rain. We're not used to wind. adding that avoiding a hurricane's winds always feels like a blessing.¹⁵⁶²

Forecasters said Pacific storm activity was running above average during peak hurricane season, a pattern consistent with El Niño years, according to the Guardian and OPB.¹⁶

Mexico's Baja braces for Polo

Hurricane Polo, a Category 3 storm with sustained winds of 125mph according to the Guardian, approached Mexico's Baja California peninsula and was expected to weaken gradually before making landfall on Monday. The Mexican government issued a hurricane warning along the mainland coast from Huatabampito to Guaymas, and the Mexican Army arrived in the fishing community of San Juanico to prepare shelter, the Guardian and OPB reported.¹⁶

San Juanico has had full-time electricity for only a couple of years. Hotel manager Gloriely Robles Meza explained that residents must prepare on their own, each safeguarding their own homes and possessions, and noted that beyond individual readiness, the town also faces other consequences to weigh. such as how the community would cope if it became isolated from outside assistance. The closest hospital is roughly 80 minutes away in Ciudad Constitución, the Guardian and adn.com reported.¹⁵

Jeffrey Westman, an American property owner who was first drawn to San Juanico's surf break 40 years ago, said storms like this often lose momentum as they get closer. I'm hoping that's the case."¹

Other Pacific systems

Tropical Storm Rachel, packing maximum sustained winds of 40mph, developed off Mexico's south-west coast roughly 300 miles south of Acapulco, with the Guardian noting that no coastal watches or warnings had been issued for the system. CBC reported that Hurricane Odalys had strengthened to Category 4, located about 1,537 kilometres to the west-southwest of Baja California's southern point, and noted that moisture from Polo might spread into the south-western US by Monday, increasing the risk of isolated flash flooding across the Four Corners area, especially in Arizona and New Mexico.¹²

Recovery support

Separately, thegardenisland.com reported that some of Hawaii's wealthiest residents were responding to what it described as a historic storm season, citing a $2.3 million gift from Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg toward recovery efforts on Kauai. Terry George said: "we are deeply grateful to Priscilla Chan and Mark Zuckerberg for their generosity and longstanding support of Hawai'i, including their most recent gift of $2.3 million to aid the recovery efforts on Kaua'i." He added: "Lasting compassion is not measured by a single act of generosity, but by showing up again and again when it matters most." The Kaua'i Emergency Management Agency said: "Preparation is the single most important step in keeping yourself, your loved ones, and your neighbors safe."³