US-Iran Nuclear Talks Stall as Mediators Press On

Negotiators from the United States and Iran held further indirect talks through Qatari mediators in New York on September 30, 2026, but officials from both countries said a nuclear agreement remains unlikely before the November midterm elections, as Iran's currency fell to a fresh record low.¹²⁴⁶

Stalled negotiations

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Qatari and Pakistani mediators in New York before departing the city, as talks continued without resolving core disagreements, according to Asharq Al-Awsat. Axios reported that Qatari mediator Ali al-Thawadi spent a week shuttling between American and Iranian representatives, yet neither delegation shifted its position on Qatar's two-page compromise plan addressing the oil blockade and nuclear-related concessions.¹³

According to Al Jazeera, the US and Iran still disagree fundamentally over what a final agreement should look like, and Washington intends to keep economic pressure on Tehran. Bloomberg cited a US official as saying Trump would ease sanctions only in exchange for tangible nuclear-related steps, and separately reported that Iranian officials privately expect a strong likelihood of escalation once the midterms conclude.²⁴

Iran's state-run IRNA first reported that its delegation had no negotiation sessions planned, then reversed course and confirmed a meeting would take place through Qatari go-betweens. Trump rejected Tehran's plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Arab News, though Trump said he expected talks to resume soon: "he expected talks to resume soon," Arab News reported.⁶

Economic strain deepens

Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Iran's rial sank to an unprecedented 2.5 million per dollar on Tuesday, just 27 days after it had set its previous low of 2.2 million, noting that the currency has kept sliding to fresh depths ever since fighting broke out in February. The outlet said the combination of an American naval blockade of Iranian oil exports and fresh sanctions has pushed the economy into what it termed a collapse.¹

The Trump administration announced sanctions on 10 individuals and entities accused of procuring weapons for Iran, with the Treasury Department saying the measures, part of what it called Operation Economic Outcast, aim to cut off financial lifelines to Tehran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said: "Treasury will not tolerate any support to the regime and will continue to identify, expose, and isolate Iran's enablers." Secretary of State Marco Rubio said: "And so when you're denying them money through oil sales and sanctions, you're not just punishing them," adding, "You are preventing them from getting access to money that they will use to try and kill Americans."¹

Hossein Mohebbi, chief spokesman for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, read a letter appealing to Americans to end the war, saying "the only way for the war to end is for Washington to admit defeat and leave the Middle East," according to Asharq Al-Awsat. The outlet further reported that an unknown projectile hit a cargo ship passing through the strait on Monday, and crews later put out the blaze it caused.¹

Mediation continues, risk of renewed fighting

TASS, citing Axios, reported that neither side in the talks is willing to budge and that a lack of progress could lead both to resume combat. Sources told Axios that stalled progress "could lead to both sides deciding to resume combat," with one adding that "no significant progress was observed during the consultations." Officials speaking to Axios said they believe Trump may authorize a large-scale return to fighting once the midterms are over, even as Qatar keeps pursuing a negotiated resolution despite the setback.³⁵

Separately, Newsmax, citing the AP, said mediators from the region are drafting a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that is linked to a distinct shipping deal between Iran and Oman. Washington wants Iran to accept nuclear-related concessions such as inspections, but American officials doubt Tehran would keep any such promises, pointing to Iran's violation of a June interim accord when it fired on merchant vessels. Asharq Al-Awsat reported that Trump spurned an Iranian proposal requiring the US to lift the blockade and release frozen assets, and quoted Araghchi saying: "They are set to raise the matter with the American side once more, after which the final US response will be conveyed to us," and "If there is a response, the Qataris will convey it to us and a decision will be made in Tehran on that basis."⁷¹

Asharq Al-Awsat also reported that the war has darkened the mood of the American electorate ahead of the November election, with elevated gasoline prices looming large, while Trump and his aides are said to be confident Iran's economy cannot sustain the conflict much longer. Trump forecast that the fighting would wrap up within a few weeks and suggested the war would probably conclude once the November elections had passed.¹